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Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD shift intermediate-term bearish

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  • When we last reviewed the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currencies on 21st January here we highlighted  that both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are susceptible to downside correction risks”.
  • US Dollar gains in February have been driven by global slowdown concerns, with the US currency seen as a safe haven, as the US economy stays strong.
  • Alongside US$ strength, a more dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the past week has seen AUDUSD plunge lower, more recently breaking below .7073 for an intermediate-term shift to bearish.
  • Again, as well as a firmer US Dollar a poor New Zealand Employment last week also encouraged a selloff for NZDUSD, with surrender of .6813 setting an intermediate-term bear trend.

 

AUDUSD Intermediate-term bear shift below key .7073 support

The Friday push below .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

Furthermore, this negative price action combined with the whole selloff in early February keeps the bias lower into Monday.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .7057; break here aims for .7024, then maybe towards .7000/6991.
  • But above .7139 opens risk up to .7180 and maybe towards .7246.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7139 .7180 .7246** .7265* .7295/7301*
.7057 .7024* .7000/6991* .6949* .6916**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd chart

NZDUSD Intermediate-term bear shift reinforced

A probe lower Friday for a better push below the .6745 support level has reinforced the Wednesday/ Thursday surrender of key .6813 support, to keep risks still lower for Monday.

The early February plunge through .6813 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6726; break here targets .6703 and maybe aims towards .6669.
  • But above .6778 opens risk up to .6831, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6703.

  • Lower targets would be .6583, .6347 and .6195
  • What Changes This? Above .6910 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 6942 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6778 .6831* .6859** .6906/10*** .6942***
.6726 .6703** .6669* .6626/12** .6583***

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart