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Australian and Canadian Dollars Still Strong After Recent Corrections

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The Australian and Canadian Dollars have both seen setbacks into latter March, but these moves are seen as corrective in nature.

A resumption of bullish AUDUSD and bearish USDCAD pressures already this week sees risk of the underlying bullish themes for AUD and CAD versus the US$ that have been dominant for much of Q1, resuming into early Q2.

AUDUSD

A prod just through support at .7480 (to .7474), but then a bullish outside Monday pattern rebound from ahead of firm supports at .7411/06 and .7388 through the Easter break shifts to a rebound bias for Tuesday.

For Tuesday/ Wednesday:

  • We see an upside bias for .7600; break here aims for .7633.
  • But below .7474 opens risk down to .7411/06, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The break above .7243 set a bull theme.

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7738.
  • Above here targets.7849 and .8000.

What Changes This? Below .7106 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6971.

USDCAD

A push above 1.3244, but then a stall ahead of 1.3365 resistance (from 1.3296) and to push below 1.3173 support to leave the bias back lower for Tuesday.

For Tuesday/ Wednesday:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3100 and 1.3044; break here aims for 1.3018.
  • But above 1.3296 opens risk up to 1.3365.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: A bearish shift in the short/ intermediate-term outlook below 1.3360.

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2828.
  • Below here targets 1.2656 and 1.2304.

What Changes This? Above 1.4017 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.4236.