AUDUSD stays bearish; NZDUSD negative in an intermediate-term range

Chris Lee

  • Erratic consolidation has dominated for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD since late March, but the overall bias remains negative for both antipodean currencies.
  • AUDUSD, shifted to an intermediate-term bearish theme in mid-March through .7710, with rebound effort repeated fading and sustaining the bear theme.
  • For the NZDUSD currency rate the intermediate-term outlook remains for a range theme (.7151 to .7355), but the very short-term pressures remain lower into mid-April.

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AUDUSD Downside risks

A Friday setback to prod .7660 support, after Thursday’s setback, further rejecting Wednesday’s probe above the down trend line from mid-March, sustaining negative pressures from the latter March selloff from .7758/64 resistance, keeping risks lower Monday.

The mid-March push below .7710 signalled an intermediate-term shift from a range theme to a bearish trend, intact whist below .7848

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7655; break here aims for .7640/35, maybe .7599.
  • But above .7700 aims at .7726 and opens risk up to .7758/64, maybe towards .7785.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.

  • Lower targets would be .7500, .7368/31 and .7155/41.
  • What Changes This? Above .7848 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7916 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7700 .7726* .7758/64* .7785* .7804*
.7655 .7640/35** .7599 .7550/43* .7500***

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart


NZDUSD Negative bias

A setback Friday through .7255 support to reinforce Thursday’s setback from our  .7323 resistance (from .7322), sustaining downside pressures from the mid-March push through our key .7175 support level (for a Double Top), keeping risks lower Monday.

We now see an intermediate-term range theme defined as .7151 to .7355.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7239; break here aims for .7184.
  • But above .7305 opens risk up to .7322/23, maybe key .7355.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .7151 to .7355.

  • Upside Risks: Above .7355 sets a bull trend to aim for .7558 and .7744.
  • Downside Risks: Below .7151 sees a bear trend to target .6951 and .6778.

Resistance and Support:

.7305 .7322/23** .7355*** .7386** .7411*
.7239* .7184 .7151*** .7140/38** .710

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart