AUDUSD stay bearish, with NZDUSD negative in a range

Chris Lee

  • We last looked at the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currencies in early February here and highlighted bearish themes for both markets.
  • Erratic consolidation activity since then has seen both AUDUSD and NZDUSD rebound then selloff again, which leaves a negative tone for both FX rates into early march.
  • For AUDUSD the intermediate-term thee remains bearish, but for NZDUSD, the rebound effort in February neutralised the bearish theme, but the market retains a negative outlook, but currently from within a range environment.


AUDUSD Risk stay back lower

A probe still lower Friday to reinforce Thursday’s selloff down from a late February rebound high at .7199 (just below the .7207 spike peak) having surrendered supports at .7139 and .7122, keeping risks lower for Monday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is growing for a push to challenge .7246, above which would see the intermediate-term outlook switch straight to bullish.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .7067; break here aims for .7050 and maybe .7024.
  • But above .7121 aims for .7166 and maybe opens risk up towards .7199 and .7207.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7246 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7121 .7166 .7199* .7207** .7246**
.7067* .7050** .7024* .7000/6991* 6949*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart


NZDUSD Bias still lower

A rebound failure and setback Friday down from below our .6853 resistance (from .6839) and to prod to a match the setback low (at .6793), to reinforce the late February failure from just below resistances at .6906/10 (from .6903), keeping the bias to the downside Monday.

We see an intermediate-term range defined as .6716 to .6942, BUT now with a growing threat for an upside challenge.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6793; break here aims for .6756 and maybe towards .6723.
  • But above .6853 opens risk up towards .6903/10.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as .6716 to .6942.

  • Upside Risks: Above .6942 sets a bull trend to aim for .6969, .7060 and .7437.
  • Downside Risks: Below .6716 sees a bear trend to target .6583, .6347 and .6195.

Resistance and Support:

.6839/53* .6903/10*** .6942*** .6969** .7000**
.6793 .6756 .6723* .6716*** .6703***

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart