AUDUSD Shifts to Bearish for May; NZDUSD Poised for a Shift to Neutral

Chris Lee

The Australian Dollar suffered notable erosion last week versus the US Dollar, stemming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut on Tuesday. This plunged AUDUSD below a key level at .7411 on Friday after the US Employment report, to shift the intermediate-term outlook to bearish into May.

Furthermore, NZDUSD is hovering above an important level at .6805, through which would complete a Double Top and shift the intermediate -term tone to neutral (from bullish).


Another significant break lower Friday below key .7411 to signal an intermediate-term bearish shift (and probe into the .7338/18 support area).

Moreover, this activity has reinforced the Wednesday break down through .7474 and aggressive sell off Tuesday (after the rate cut by the RBA) through the trend line from mid-March, to leave the bias lower Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7335/18; break here aims for .7279.
  • But above .7400 aims for .7478, maybe .7517.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7197.
  • Below here targets .7106 and .7000.

What Changes This? Above .7719 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7835.

Daily AUDUSD Chart



A plunge lower Friday to reinforce the bearish outside Tuesday pattern back from the mid-April peak at .7054, to threaten a Double Top, needing a push below .6805, through which would see an intermediate-term shift to neutral.

We see bias for a further bear correction into Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for key .6805; break here aims for .6755/48 and .6711.
  • But above .6881 opens risk up to .6922 and .6941.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above .6805, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7000/12.
  • Above here targets .7232 and .7396/7413.

What Changes This? Below .6805 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6664.

Daily NZDUSD Chart