AUDUSD Posts Intermediate-term Top; NZDUSD Threatens Similar

Chris Lee

AUDUSD has undergone significant losses for the first half of September. The break below through key .7484 support indicated a notable intermediate-term top and reversal of the bull trend from May. This activity now points to a consolidation theme for the second half of September, but with risks of a more bearish shift below .7403.

NZDUSD has not yet suffered as significant a technical setback, but risks are growing for a shift from bullish to neutral on the intermediate-term outlook. This would only be signalled by a break below .7200.


A setback Friday from ahead of .7540 resistance to reinforce the low level consolidation Wednesday-Thursday and leave negative pressures from the Tuesday breakdown through key .7489/86/84 support, to keep a bear bias again Monday.

In addition, the plunge below this support area (.7489/86/84), also produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7471 and .7438; break here aims for .7417 and maybe next critical level at .7403!
  • But above .7528/40 opens risk up to .7568/80 and maybe .7619.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .7760.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
  • Downside: Below .7403 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.

Daily AUDUSD Chart



A renewal of bearish pressures (as anticipated Friday) after another hesitant bounce effort , back from .7331 (ahead of resistance at .7364) and again setback to leave negative pressures from the prior sell off (through .7286 and .7265 supports), to keep a negative tone Monday.

Mounting risk remains for an intermediate-term shift from bullish to neutral, signalled by a break below .7200.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7231/23; break here aims for key .7200, then maybe .7163.
  • But above .7331 opens risk up to .7364, maybe .7382.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7396/7413.
  • Above here targets .7516/64 and .7744.

What Changes This? Below .7200 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7084.

Daily NZDUSD Chart