The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have produced notable setbacks versus the US Dollar in late April, but have for now managed to hold above significant supports, maintaining their underlying bullish themes.
For now, this leaves AUDUSD and NZDUSD rebound risk for early May, to try to reinforce the strong gains from Q1 2016.
Despite a minor setback Friday, a higher high and higher low reinforced the rebound effort Thursday off of the multi-week, internal trend line support from mid-March (now at .7555, rebound off of .7547) to keep the bias back higher Monday.
The bigger picture bull theme is intact, with easing risks of neutralising the intermediate-term bull theme, which would require a break of .7474 (shifting bearish below .7411).
- We see an upside bias for .7668; break here aims for .7700, maybe closer to .7765/74 targets.
- But below .7555/47 aims through .7525 and opens risk down to .7489/74.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The March break above .7243 set a bull theme.
- Whilst above .7474 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7738.
- Above here targets.7849 and .8000.
What Changes This? Below .7474 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7411.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
A firm Friday rally to build on the bullish outside pattern Wednesday rebound from the .6819/02 support area (from .6805) and strong Thursday advance above .6936 and .6986 resistances, to keep the risk higher Monday.
- We see an upside bias for .6998/7000; break here aims for the .7054 peak and then .7100.
- But below .6950 aims for .6893 opens risk down to 6805/02, which we would look to again hold.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7000/12.
- Above here targets .7232 and .7396/7413.
What Changes This? Below .6664 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6541.
Daily NZDUSD Chart