AUDUSD and NZDUSD Stay Bullish and Positive Respectively

Steve Miley

Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have seen modest corrective setbacks in early August versus the US Dollar.

However, underlying strength from late July retains a bullish intermediate-term (and also short-term) outlook for AUDUSD, whilst NZDUSD has a less forceful, but still positive outlook into mid-August.

AUDUSD

Another new recovery high Friday through .7638 and .7659 resistance, and despite a setback, support at .7566 has held (from .7594), to leave an upside bias Monday.

This activity has once again reinforced the intermediate-term bullish outlook, having rejected a shift back to neutral in late July (only seen below .7403).

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for .7664; break here aims for the .7676 cycle peak and maybe .7719.
  • But below .7594 targets .7566 and .7541.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift .

  • We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7676 and .7719.
  • Above here targets .7835/49/78 and .8000.

What Changes This? Below .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7284.

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

A rebound and setback Friday to hint at a small Head and Shoulders Top formation, but whilst above .7107 support we see bias still for a rebound into Monday. Down through .7107 see a more negative correction shift.

Although Mid-July saw a probe below the key .6960 level for a shift in the intermediate-term outlook to neutral (from bullish), August risk is still for a bullish shift again above.7324.

For Monday:

  • We see an upside bias for .7219; break here aims for .7256 and .7272.
  • But below .7107 opens risk down to .7058.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by .7324 and .6676.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7324 aims higher for .7396/7413 and .7564.
  • Downside: Below .6676 sees risk lower for .6541 and .6343.

Daily NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD Chart