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AUDUSD negative with US$ up, whilst NZ$ weakness leaves NZDUSD VERY bearish

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Updated:

  • A firmer US Dollar has been seen again since mid-October against most G10 currencies, with continuing strength in the US economy and also an ongoing anticipation of a more hawkish Fed.
  • This leaves AUDUSD with a negative tone evident since September.
  • For NZDUSD, however, the negative impact of a new political ruling party has reinforced an already bearish theme, with risk for deeper losses into October/November.

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AUDUSD – Bearish pressures

A Friday failure back from just below resistance at .7897 (from .7887) to push through supports in the .7816/15 area, resuming the intermediate term bearish theme and aiming lower again for Monday.

The September surrender of important .7805 support produced an intermediate-term bearish shift, BUT risk remains for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral above .7986.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias through .7800 for .7768; break here aims for .7731.

l But above .7887/97 opens risk up to .7940/45.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7568, maybe towards .7331.

l Below here targets the .7155/41 area.

What Changes This? Above .7986 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .8125.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD – Bearish trend re-energised

As anticipated another significant push lower on Friday to support at .7024, .7003 and .6984, sustaining Thursday’s extremely aggressive sell-off through .7049, the October low, leaving the threat lower again Monday.

The early October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, reinforced in October below .7049.

For Today:

l We see a downside bias through .6952; break here aims for .6914, maybe closer to .6876.

l But above .7003 opens risk up to .7056.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7003 and .6814.

What Changes This? Above .7211 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7434.

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD Chart