- The AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates have seen significant losses in the past week as US Dollar broad strength has resurfaced though mid-June.
- This is despite US yields continuing to push lower.
- The AUDUSD currency pair has surrendered key .6863/62 support lows to resume the intermediate-term bear trend, also reinforcing the short-term downside risk.
- The NZDUSD Forex rate has pushed through critical .6495/93 supports to also restart the medium-term bear theme.
AUDUSD intermediate-term bear trend resumes
A plunge low Friday through key .6863/62 support lows has rejected the more positive recovery theme from latter May and early June and sets an intermediate-term bear trend.
Furthermore, this bearish price action through .6863/62 has reinforced bear signals set through last week with surrender of the up, counter trendline from May and the .6899/97 support area, to set risks lower for Monday.
- We see a downside bias for .6858; break here aims for .6829, maybe towards .6800.
- But above .6903 opens risk up to .6938.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6829 and .6738.
- What Changes This? Above .6973 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7022 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour Chart
NZDUSD intermediate-term bear shift
A Friday plunge through critical .6495/93 supports close to the cycle low at .6480 (to .6484), to reinforce the Wednesday/ Thursday probe through our key .6573/65 zone to shift the intermediate-term outlook bearish.
Furthermore, this negative price actions sets the bias lower Monday.
- We see a downside bias for .6484/80; break here aims for .6455, maybe towards .6423.
- But above .6512 opens risk up to .6548.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6424.
- Lower targets would be .6347 and .6196.
- What Changes This? Above .6593 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .6681 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.
4 Hour Chart