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AUDUSD and NZDUSD shift back to intermediate-term bear trends

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  • The AUDUSD and NZDUSD FX rates have seen significant losses in the past week as US Dollar broad strength has resurfaced though mid-June.
  • This is despite US yields continuing to push lower.
  • The AUDUSD currency pair has surrendered key .6863/62 support lows to resume the intermediate-term bear trend, also reinforcing the short-term downside risk.
  • The NZDUSD Forex rate has pushed through critical .6495/93 supports to also restart the medium-term bear theme.

AUDUSD intermediate-term bear trend resumes

A plunge low Friday through key .6863/62 support lows has rejected the more positive recovery theme from latter May and early June and sets an intermediate-term bear trend.

Furthermore, this bearish price action through .6863/62 has reinforced bear signals set through last week with surrender of the up, counter trendline from May and the .6899/97 support area, to set risks lower for Monday.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .6858; break here aims for .6829, maybe towards .6800.
  • But above .6903 opens risk up to .6938.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6829 and .6738.

  • What Changes This? Above .6973 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7022 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD intermediate-term bear shift

A Friday plunge through critical .6495/93 supports close to the cycle low at .6480 (to .6484), to reinforce the Wednesday/ Thursday probe through our key .6573/65 zone to shift the intermediate-term outlook bearish.

Furthermore, this negative price actions sets the bias lower Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6484/80; break here aims for .6455, maybe towards .6423.
  • But above .6512 opens risk up to .6548.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6424.

  • Lower targets would be .6347 and .6196.
  • What Changes This? Above .6593 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .6681 is needed for an intermediate-term bull theme.

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD