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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends reenergised

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Updated:

  • When we last looked at both AUDUSD and NZDUSD we emphasised consolidation themes, which had raised risks for bottoming patterns.
  • However, US Dollar strength into mid-August, due to ongoing Trade War worries and Turkish contagion concerns, has seen a resumption of AUDUSD and NZDUSD bearish themes with downside extensions.
  • The AUDUSD plunge through .7315/08 and NZDUSD selloff through the cycle low at .6693 sets the intermediate-term risks still lower for August.

 

AUDUSD Intermediate-term bear trend reenergised

An extremely aggressive sell off Friday to not only reject any recent positive threats, but to surrender the cycle lows at .7315 and .7308, to reenergise the intermediate-term bear trend and also leave risks lower for Monday.

The intermediate-term bear trend resumed with the mid-August plunge.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias through .7277; break here aims for .7243, maybe then towards .7208/03 and even key .7155.
  • But above .7321 opens risk up to .7373/75.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7484 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7484 switches the intermediate-term outlook straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7321** .7373/75* .7412 .7453** .7464**
.7277 .7243 .7208/03 .7155** .7141**

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd

NZDUSD Bear trend fully reenergised

Another plunge Friday (as also seen Thursday after the RBNZ Meeting, a more dovish tone than anticipated) to hit a longer-term target at .6576, reinforcing the recent surrender of the cycle low at .6693, to leave the bias lower Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6568 and .6545; break here aims for the psychological/ option target at .6500, then maybe towards .6449.
  • But above .6618 targets .6656, which we would look to try to cap.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6759/66 we see a downside risk for .6500.

  • Lower targets would be .6347, .6195 and .6000.
  • What Changes This? Above .6759/66 switches the intermediate-term straight to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6618** .6656* .6674 .6717* .6759/66***
.6568 .6545** .6500** .6449 .6408

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd

 

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