AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends re-energized

Chris Lee

Author: Chris Lee

Published:
Updated:

See the latest Technical Analysis here!
  • In our reports published on 11th June we underlined that both intermediate-term AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends were under threat.
  • However, renewed geopolitical concerns regarding a global trade war have seen both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars sell off, whilst the US Dollar has rallied.
  • The AUDUSD FX rate has rejected an end to the intermediate-term bear trend, with the sell off from .7677 to a new cycle low.
  • For the NZDUSD currency rate, the push below .6822 to a new cycle low points to further losses for July.

AUDUSD Still negative, despite bounce

A bounce Friday through the.7375/80 resistance area and to prod .7407, but whilst contained below .7423 we still see bear pressures from last Wednesday’s push below the cycle lows at .7345/43, keeping the risk lower Monday.

We see a re-energized intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7677.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7367, then .7322; break here quickly aims for .7300 and maybe key .7289.
  • But above .7423 targets .7444/54 and maybe towards .7475/80.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7677 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7678 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7409 .7423 .7444/54* .7475/80 .7500
.7367 .7322* .7300 .7289 .7251

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

 audusd chart

NZDUSD Bear extension

Only a modest bounce Friday from another new cycle low to just probe at the .6780/85 resistance area, but sustaining bear forces from Thursday’s aggressive selloff through .6755 support, AND Wednesday’s plunge through the cycle low at .6822 and psychological/ option level at .6800, to keep risks lower Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6734; break here aims for .6708, maybe .6676/64.
  • But above .6785 aims for .6833 and maybe targets .6858.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .7060 shifts the outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6785 .6833* .6858* .6900 .6921
.6734 .6708 .6676/64** .6647 .6621

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart 

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