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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends questioned

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Updated:

  • In our last AUDUSD and NZDUSD reports published here on 2nd July we highlighted a renewal of intermediate-term bearish pressures for AUDUSD and NZDUSD.
  • However, despite bearish extensions, much of the AUDUSD and NZDUSD price action in July has followed a consolidation theme, which has raised risks for bottoming patterns.
  • The AUDUSD FX rate maintains an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT above .7484 would see a base and a shift the intermediate-term outlook to neutral.
  • For the NZDUSD currency rate, a similar bottom and neutral shift would require a recovery above .6858.

AUDUSD

Bias back higher 

An initial dip Friday, but then a significant surge higher (broader USD weakness), through the .7395/7400 resistance area, for now rejecting Thursday’s selloff down from the .7442 resistance level, shifting risk higher Monday.

We see an intermediate-term bear trend whilst below .7484.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7442; break here aims for .7484.
  • But below .7360/55 maybe opens risk down to .7315, then quickly to the .7308, the cycle low.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst contained below .7484 we see a downside risk for .7155/41 and .7000.

  • What Changes This? Above .7484 switches the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7678 shifts the view to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.7442** .7484*** .7566 .7597/00 .7623*
.7360/55 .7315/08* .7265 .7209 .7200

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD Chart 2018-07-23

NZDUSD

Rebound risks

A firm rebound effort Friday above notable resistance at .6806, for now rejecting Thursday’s plunge (to break through the Triangle consolidation trend line), to shift the bias higher for Monday.

The latter June break below the .6880 swing low set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6817; break here aims for .6840 and opens risk up to key .6858.
  • But below .6750/45 opens risk down to .6718/10.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below .6858 we see a downside risk for .6676/64.

  • Lower targets would be .6500 and .6343.
  • What Changes This? Above .6858 switches the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; above .7060 shifts the view to bullish.

Resistance and Support:

.6817 .6840** .6858*** .6900 .6921**
.6750/45 .6718/10 .6693* .6676/64** .6647

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD Chart 2018-07-23