US$ Erratic Within G3

Published: 28 September 2015

The US Currency has displayed an erratic tone within G3, versus the Euro and Japanese Yen, throughout September.

We look for this indecisive tone to continue into early October, but see the bias skewed for both a more negative EURUSD tone (USD positive) and also a bearish USDJPY bias (USD negative).

EURUSD

Whilst above 1.1085, we still see an underlying bull theme for latter September; BUT, we see a strong bias for a break below here for a neutral tone (with a bear shift below 1.1015).

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above 1.1085 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1714.
  • Above here targets 1.1871, 1.2000 and 1.2254.

What Changes This? Below 1.1085 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.1015.

Daily EURUSD Chart

USDJPY

A break lower post-FOMC through 119.36 support still leaves an underlying bear tone into latter September/early October, from the aggressive latter August sell off through multiple 2015 supports (118.86, 118.14, 116.67). 

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to back down to the 118.43/118.21/117.83 area and 116.14 spike low.
  • Below here targets 115.57 and 113.86.

What Changes This? Above 121.75/77 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 124.16. 

Daily USDJPY Chart

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