AUDUSD Upside Risk; NZDUSD Bear Threat Eased

Solid rebound activity for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD spot forex rates since the FOMC rate hike and perceived more dovish statement than anticipated on Wednesday 15th March. This activity has neutralised the AUDUSD and NZDUSD sell offs from late February after more hawkish statements from various Federal Reserve Board members, shifting the bias higher for these currency pairs into the second half of March.

For AUDUSD, this sees threat of a bully shift above .7778.

For NZDUSD, this has rejected the threat of a more bearish tone (through .6867), lending a positive bias within a broader range environment.

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AUDUSD

A resilient consolidation to end the week, holding above modest support at .7633, maintaining upside pressures from the push higher Thursday through resistance at .7708 and the surge post-FOMC (through multiple resistance factors), keeping the risks higher for Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7719; break here aims for .7742.
  • But below .7633 opens risk down to .7591.

 

The short-term threat through mid-March has resumed for a push above .7778, which would see an intermediate-term bullish shift.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7487 and .7778.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7778 aims higher for .7835/49/78 and .80000.
  • Downside: Below .7487 sees risk lower for .7155/41/06, .6971 and maybe .6825.

 

Daily AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD

A rebound from ahead of support at .6948 on Friday (from .6964) maintaining upside pressures from the Wednesday bullish surge post-FOMC to prod up at .7047 resistance, keeping risks higher for Monday.

Furthermore, we see reduced risk of an intermediate-term bearish shift below .6867.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .7049; break here aims for .7070/73.
  • But below .6964 opens risk down to .6915 and maybe .6886/81.

 

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .6867.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7403 aims higher for .7485, .7564 and .7744.
  • Downside: Below .6867 sees risk lower for .6800, .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.

 

Daily NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart

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