AUDUSD and NZDUSD stay bearish (despite US$ strength fading)

  • A slightly weaker US Dollar into mid-November against many G10 currencies, primarily due to concerns regarding the path of tax reform legislation.
  • However, AUDUSD has been consolidating sideways in November and retains the negative tone, that has been evident from September and that we highlighted here in October
  • The NZDUSD FX rate, has corrected higher in early November, but we look for bearish pressures t start to resume into mid-November.

 

AUDUSD Bear threat

Another setback Friday, further rejecting Wednesday's bounce with initial resistance at .7700 intact, sustaining negative pressures from the early November push through supports at .7637/36 and the late October sell off through the key .7731 level, aiming lower again Monday.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .7624/22; through here targets .7602, then .7568.
  • But above .7700 opens risk up to .7730, maybe .7769.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7568, maybe towards .7331.
  • Below here targets the .7155/41 area.

What Changes This? Above .7986 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .8125.

Resistance and Support:

.7700

.7730

.7769

.7796

.7835*

.7624/22*

.7602

.7568**

.7532**

.7516

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD Chart

NZDUSD Negative tone as upside correction fades

A setback as expected Friday from ahead of .7003/04 resistance (from .6980) as the recent rebound effort starts to fade, setting negative pressures from the late October extension of the bear trend from the summer, aiming lower again Monday.

The early October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, reinforced in October below .7049.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6889; break here aims at 6871.
  • But above .6980 opens risk up to towards .7003/04.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Downside Risks:

  • We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7003 and .6814.
  • What Changes This? Above .7211 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7434.

Resistance and Support:

.6980

.7003/04**

.7056

.7105

.7163

.6889

.6871*

.6814***

.6800**

.6755

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd chart 

 

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