AUD/USD unlikely to surpass 0.7390 as the week progresses

Chris Lee

The Australian dollar has, like many world currencies, been in a state of flux in recent weeks.

It continues to have something of an uncertain air about it, though its long-term outlook is good.

Last week, the price charts revealed something of a surge for the currency.

Its simple moving average (SMA) now rests at around 0.7253 on a 20-day basis.

Even when this average is extended in scope to a 50-day and 100-day level, the uptrend persists.

However, analysts do not believe that the Aussie dollar is likely to go too far above its current point.

This expectation exists despite the problems facing its main rival, the US dollar, in a context of super-low interest rates for the greenback being likely to persist for a while.

It is widely expected that the cap for the Aussie sits at around 0.7390.

Going above this is thought to be an unlikely outcome.

Away from the price charts, the fundamentals of the Australian economy remain highly fragile following the coronavirus pandemic.

It was revealed recently that the country had entered a deep recession, and major cities in the country, such as Melbourne in the state of Victoria, continue to suffer from partial lockdowns.

The economic calendar shows that the Aussie dollar is likely to have a busy few days ahead of it.

On Tuesday morning, for example, the National Australia Bank will reveal its business confidence survey for August.

This is due out at 1:30am GMT, and is expected to show a change from -14 to -22.

In the same time slot, there will be a business conditions release from the same bank.

However, this is expected to go in the other direction – though only by a negligible amount – set to rise from 0 to 2.

Westpac bank will publish its consumer confidence survey for September at 12:30am GMT on Wednesday.

This metric was last noted at -9.5%, and there is currently no agreement on what level it is set to rise to.

Home loans figures for July will also be out on Wednesday, this time at 1:30am GMT.

This is set to reveal a significant drop, with the level going down from 7.1% to 3.1%.

Traders may interpret this as a sign that home buyers and sellers are avoiding transactions – or, indeed, that lenders are hedging their bets and lending less during the deep recession that Australia is currently experiencing.

The latter point will be tested further when an investment lending for homes metric is released during the same time slot, covering the same month — this was last recorded at 8.1%.

There is currently no consensus as to where this metric will go next.

Thursday morning, meanwhile, will see consumer inflation expectations for September released at 1:00am GMT — when last recorded this was at 3.3%.